How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.